I have been compiling fashion trend forecasts, specifically for
the children’s market, for over ten years.
During this time, there have been vast developments in technology and
the way that we consume and access information online. This has resulted in a huge shift in the way
brands and retailers’ access and digest trend information. As a result, the pace in which trend
information is delivered and the way it is displayed, is in constantly need of
updating.
I’ve been asked an array of questions relating to trend
forecasting over the past couple of years, from clients and customers, which
has prompted me to write this article. More importantly, it’s made me
re-evaluate how I, as a forecaster, react to these questions and answer them
visually in our trend publications in a way that’s obvious and easy for our
clients to digest and translate into fashion collections.
WHO IS THE PUBLICATION AIMED AT?
At [K.I.D.S] Ltd, we
know our market to be predominantly smaller boutique brands; independent
designers and retailers that just want a clear and concise trend forecast. Our clients enjoy our forecasts for the break
down in age categories, easy visual shape, print and pattern influences, as
well as clear and cohesive colour palettes that can easily translate into a
capsule collection and as a result, merchandise well as a story in-store.
This is exactly what we set out to achieve when we first
established and it’s what we want to carry on delivering. We want our publications to be specific, to
the point, and predominantly easy to use.
We were inspired to create [K.I.D.S]
Ltd forecasts to provide an alternative to the major trend forecasters, who offer
so much information, that’s it becomes hard for brands to actually feel
confident when trying to define their seasonal direction.
While these mega forecasters provide the kind of information which
is great for mega retailers and key figures in fast fashion. It leads to confusion for smaller brands, who
often represent something entirely opposite to fast fashion. We’ve found that our clients more often
identify themselves as more conscious retailers with strategies focusing on
friendly fashion. Instead of mainstream production methods, a vast amount of
our client list uses mainly organic materials and production methods and strive
to produce products that are made local to them, that are durable and last. We take all this into consideration and strive
to reflect the ethics of our client base within the direction of trends.
As well as our smaller brands and independent designers, we also
sell to lots of big international brands and retailers who look for inspiration
for smaller collections and seek something different and more unique from other
forecasters.
HOW ARE FASHION SEASONS TRULY DEFINED?
There appears to be a lot of confusion surrounding the traditional
fashion season definitions. I’ve had
lots of clients and students asking me questions such as ‘which season should I
actually be following for a Spring Summer 2019 drop’
Everyone is familiar with the classification of Spring Summer and
Autumn Winter seasons that define the traditional catwalk shows and fashion
collection drops in store’s. However, as
the demand for fast and more frequent fashion has increased, this has evolved
to include other terms such as cruise, resort, high summer, pre-drop,
transitional, festival and the list goes on.
While the type of clothing we wear is without a doubt still largely defined
by season. I’m asking whether delegating trends to a season, or more specifically
a particular calendar year, is still relevant?
It is clear that brands, retailers, designers and buyers alike want
information NOW and more importantly NEW information. So, when a trend forecast for Spring Summer
2019 becomes available to consumers to react to as early as December 2017 (for example)
The likelihood for your average retailer, working on a typical nine-month lead
time, is that the forecast will influence their designs for Spring Summer
2018.
Confused? This then creates
a problem for lots of smaller boutique (or slower paced brands) who can’t react
as quickly to information, due to having longer lead times than their fast
fashion competitors. The result is, when
they drop their SS19 influenced designs actually in Spring 2019, they find
everyone else covered this the year before!
Frustrating? Yes, not only is
this frustrating, but it can actually have a huge financial impact and affect
the reputation of a brand at the same time.
No one wants to be late to react to a trend.
So, what is the answer?
We want or clients to take our trend stories and use them to
inspire their own creativity appropriate to the direction of the brand. While we still do all the same research as
the mega forecasters, we try to be really specific and define 5 key trends
every six months.
As a result, our clients can mix and match trends and adapt colour
palettes to reflect their own brand direction and ethos. They can also look as past, present and
future trends to develop stories that are right for them at any time.
Going forward, we are going to be less specific with our season
definitions – instead we will refer to volumes rather than years. As we have an international client base, both
in the Sothern and Norther hemispheres, this should help stop season
confusion. Instead, we just want to
deliver newness as fast as possible, for our clients to react to in their own
time.
HOW ARE TRENDS PREDICTED?
Again, I get asked all the time by clients and students how trend
forecasters predict future trends. Well
the truth is this has changed vastly over the past decade too!
Traditionally, it used to be the trusted method of PESTEL
research; knowing and researching what’s happening in the political, economic,
social, technological, environment and legal atmosphere and cleverly
interpreting and translating how these current actions will translate into
reactions in society up to 18 months down the line, and thus result in
trends. Sounds confusing? Don’t worry, it takes many years of studying
and practise to understand this method of research and the truth is; a lot of
trend forecasting comes down to intuition too!
With the rapid expansion of media technology, including most
notable the rise of social media platforms, consumers are being fed style
information from a variety of new sources.
The rise of social media ambassadors through the likes of vloggers,
bloggers, you tube sensations etc… have created a whole new demographic of
visual influences. Forecasters are just
as much having to understand the significance of these NEW style influences as
much as the catwalks and aspirational designers and brands that still provide
some of the old trickle-down theory to trend too.
This being said, PESTEL research is still important. You only have to scroll through your
favourite news app to get your daily brain dump of what’s happening
internationally on the news scene. Take
one of the biggest international news stories of 2018; the state of our oceans
as a result of the over consumption of plastics. These stories have gone viral, with every
generation becoming aware of the matter and concerning themselves with how to
move forward living more sustainable, and more importantly, limiting their
plastic outputs. This is obviously
translating into trends both literally and visually in fashion. Whether it be the purchase of products that
are upcycled from waste plastic or purchasing a garment that reflects your view
on the environment with a key slogan.
This is an ‘obviously’ translation of a PESTEL influence into a key
fashion movement and trend.
Data science and trend forecasting...
While trend forecasting is still hugely important (as I mention
previously, all brands want to have that something that’s new and desirable to
their customer) At the same time, it would be naïve to disregard the huge
increase in data information that has emerged over the past couple of
decades. With more and more people
purchasing online and in apps it’s become easier than ever before to see what’s
selling on an international scale. No
longer do buyers have to sit in sales meetings and await secret information on their
competitors’ sales from past colleagues who are willing to disclose their company’s
information under the table to friends/competitors. Instead, they can become subscribers to dater
gurus such as edited.com.
Co-founder of edited.com, Julia Fowler, who used to be a designer
herself, describes the predicament brands are in during this new age of
information versus trend forecasting. In
an article with the Times, Fowler describes the role of a designer (or brand) “is to make things that people are going
to buy. It’s hard because you’re working on products that won’t be in store for
six to twelve months. It’s a huge risk you’re having to take, especially when
you’re ordering thousands of items.” She
goes onto describe her motivation for starting edited.com as “[she] wanted to
see what products were performing well
so we had a better idea of what would sell. The problem was there wasn’t any
information, so it was really frustrating.”
In reality, a successful forecast for any brand or retailer will
be coming up with a fine balance of creating a visual forecast which is
justified by strong data analysis.
Again, fast fashion brands are more reliant on strong data analysis. Whereas for smaller brands, on longer lead
times, it’s more important to create a forecast that’s true to your brands
future direction and aspirations, making sure you create something that’s
really desirable and appeals to early innovators and adopters of trends.
At [K.I.D.S] Ltd, we
are constantly out on a task of discovery and research. We constantly keep up with what’s happening
on the news, social media, key fashion influences, new brands, while looking at
and analysing data information. We then
look at all our information to forecast 5 key trends twice annually.
HOW SHOULD USE TREND FORECASTS AS A BRAND OR DESIGNER?
So how do you use a trend forecast as a brand or designer? Well, first you need to really understand WHO
you are as a brand and what your ETHOS is and just as importantly what your
ETHICS are. This is both true for brand
and designers. It’s important for a
successful brand to stick to their core values while delivering NEWNESS and
gently evolving as a brand in line with their original brand ethos.
Putting all your eggs in one basket (so to speak) and relying on a
single trend forecast OR taking a forecast literally is a big mistake. You should use a trend forecast as a
foundation or starting place to ignite your own research and spark your
imagination. A trend forecast should
give you the reassurance that your thinking is going in the correct direction.
You should then analyse data, that of your own and on a more
global scale and combine this into your own visual direction that compliments
your brand ethos and direction.
UNDERSTANDING CONSUMERS IN A POST DEMOGRAPHIC SOCIETY
Anyone who’s studied marketing at some stage, is generally
familiar with a psychographic profile graph, where you plot a consumer
somewhere on an axis in relation to how quickly they adopt to trends. These consumers are then often applied a term
e.g. innovator, early adopter, late adopter etc… in relation to how quickly
they adopt to these trends. This is all
part of understanding who your consumer/brand is and how trend driven they
are. It’s the foundation of the theory
of consumer profiling/demographics. It’s
really important for any successful brand to know who their consumer is in
order for all the trends they are investing in essentially be purchased by
them.
So here lies the problem, issue or hopefully opportunity depending
on how you look at it. Communities are
expanding and becoming more international and global. Smart brands are reacting to this by looking
at their client bases on a more international scale. You only have to scroll through the feeds of
your favourite social media platforms to see products being nonchalantly
scrolled before your eyes that capture your interest. Fluke?
No, this is by careful artificial intelligence analysing your algorithms
picked up in previous web searches and directing things that may be of interest
your way – sneaky!
Often, when you look at the brands and products being pushed
towards you, they are based half way around the world (this can be ultra-annoying
when you purchase something and find out the shipping takes 3 weeks!) The point
is, these brands are not restricting themselves to a single consumer profile.
Nowadays, in what’s often referred to as a post demographic
society, it’s harder than ever to Pidgeon hole your consumer into a generic profile. Instead, you need to look broader and put
your focus more on how consumers are evolving and whatever you do - don’t
stereotype!
Take the Harley Davidson brand as an example, traditionally we all
think of that stereotypical ‘Hells Angel’ comfortably in their retirement,
silvering nicely, plenty of tattoo’s who noisily, yet respectfully, hum’s down
the road on those first spring day.
Well, the brand hasn’t been doing so great recently, but they have
engaged with a new strategy that’s right on board with what I’m trying to say
here. To try to turn the brand around,
Harley Davidson are trying to engage with Millennials via mobile and digital
while still catering to their loyalists.
During their re-brand they realised that a huge amount of their client
base was female – really? Who knew? In
fact, at a marketing event they held recently, females were a high ratio of the
attendees turning up in traditional Harley Davidson gear with one in a slogan
t-shirt with “Born to Party, Forced to Work” go girls! Seriously though, girl power isn’t new, in
fact it kind of went off trend in the early 2000’s before re-emerging recently
when someone put their hand up to mention there’s still a gender pay gap, then
there’s #metoo and (without going off topic) the list sadly goes on. And that’s really the point, make sure you
truly know who your vast client base is, don’t Pidgeon hole your consumer and
most importantly be inclusive. If not
you risk closing your door to huge pot of potential consumers you were ignorant
to the fact you may appeal to!
A brand that knows the importance of looking beyond the realms of
traditional target consumers and is successfully embracing the new theory of
inclusivity or a post demographic society is Dulce and Gabanna. Not only do they do luxury and do it well,
they don’t eliminate. They appeal to a
broad spectrum of consumers and are always embracing NEW consumers rather than
ignoring them. Only today they release
their first collection aimed at Muslim women, notably the day after Boris
Johnson refused to make an apology for his remark regarding women wearing Burka’s.
Whatever side you are on – the future
trend os most definitely inclusivity.
To properly understand your potential consumers, you need to be
inclusive and look at the broader spectrum.
I believe instead of creating a consumer profile, which is so singular,
generic and specific you need to create a consumer map. Consumer mapping should be where you identify
every potential group that will find your product desirable, or of benefit, and
really understand who they are as a community and moreover how you think that
community will grow to include others over time.
WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF TREND FORECASTING?
Well that is the BIG question!
Living in a rapidly evolving global community, it’s getting harder and
harder to have the confidence we took for granted only ten years ago when it
comes to investing in and more importantly having confidence in trends. Brand loyalty is very limited in a time when consumers
are fickler than ever. There’s also a
huge amount of negativity surrounding fashion with the demise of the high
street and huge names disappearing every week, so it’s no wonder brand and
designers can feel insecure about their appearance a lot of the time. Trend forecasting is supposed to be what
gives brand confidence so what is the future?
It’s worth noting that, retail has never been ‘easy’ and
forecasting has never been easy, and whether we like it or not the future is moving
forward and the more we try to embrace it, the more exciting and filled with
NEW opportunities it can be.
No one really know what is going to happen in the future. However, you can make accurate and considered
predictions. Fashion is always going to
react to trends – it’s the way we see trends that’s changing. Confusing?
I know! All we know is that we here make a promise to always be on top
of what’s happening, and more importantly, keep you up to date. Whether that be feeding you with the latest
and most exciting colour and fashion trends, giving you detailed opinions about
the state of trend or changing the way in which we format and present our
trends. Trust us to do the hard work for
you and more importantly keep you updated!
We are also really keen to hear your comments and suggestions, so
we can take these into consideration too.
Please feel free to comment or start a conversation in one of our online
feeds. You can always catch us at emikiddy@googlemail.com
with your ideas, comments and suggestions.
We really hope you have found this article interesting and it has
answered some of those illusive questions surrounding trend forecasting.
